Who to Pass on in 09

It's almost that time of year again...when the Top 10 Plays on ESPN aren't the same old boring diving baseball catch or home run (Oh, how I hate baseball season) and we finally get to see some real highlights. Let's face it, any Little League kid can catch a ball and throw a guy out at first, but it takes a real athlete (yep, I just called out all baseball players that ever lived) to run over six guys on his way to a touchdown. A new football season calls for a new fantasy football season and if you plan on winning your league then you need to start getting ready now.

That being said, you will probably start reading a lot of projections and articles on who to pick up this year. Well, here is my two cents (for now). Here are a few players that I don't want anywhere near my roster this year. Picking up one of these guys could easily force you to scramble later on to find a replacement and when the waiver wire is looking pretty hopeless, so are your chances of bringing home your league trophy.


Quarterbacks

Tom Brady

Last year Tom Brady was a legit first round selection that was guaranteed to give you crazy fantasy points week in and week out - and then the ACL tear in the first game. So many first round selections down the tube along with fantasy league championships lost on that one play. Brady had a few setbacks with his surgery and rehab early last year, but apparently ended up recovering well - say the Patriots. Coach Bilicheck gives as many straight answers on the injury report as Mark McGwire does under oath. An ACL tear is no joke and even after months of rest and rehab he is not going to be 100% this year. Maybe a 80% Brady is good for you but not for me. Besides, he may be too broken hearted over those missing flower boxes or thinking about how hot his wife is to concentrate on the game. There are better options for your top QB this year.

Carson Palmer

Like Brady, Carson Palmer is coming off a major injury to begin the season, a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Kind of a big deal if you are the guy slinging the rock. Palmer chose to rehab the injury rather than taking the surgical route like Jake Delhomme did. The Bengals dont exactly have an all star offensive line either and its hard to throw a touchdown while laying on your back. Housh has departed for Seattle and Ochocinco isn't the same as Chad Johnson he used to be - literally actually. You don't want Palmer as your starter this year. Draft a QB earlier and make someone else pick him up.

Running Backs

Brian Westbrook

It doesnt seem like the Eagles have enough Ace bandages to keep West-breezy on the field. For the last few years we all seem to get lured back into the Westbrook trap - he looks and feels good in training camp says Andy Reid - and we know he could bust out with 200 total yards and a couple TDs in any game, so we draft him. He does well for a game or two and you think man, this guy is crazy good - then he gets hurt. In addition to injuries, the Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy who could steal some touches and signed Leonard Weaver at fullback who could steal some receptions from him. Oh, and he is hurt right now and might miss all of training camp. With all this going on he isn't worth your time.

Ryan Grant

I'm still not sold on Ryan Grant as a featured back. He is better suited for a platoon approach rather than shouldering the majority of the load himself. Given that Aaron Rodgers proved he does have the skills to replace Favre the Packers went back to passing a lot since Grant was only giving them just over 3 yards per carry. The only thing he has going for him is that there really isnt anyone to challenge him for his job so he will get carries. Let a die hard Packers fan make the mistake of drafting him and use your pick more wisely.

Wide Receivers

Terrell Owens

Getcha pop corn (or tissues) ready - its about to be another circus. Do you really think T.O. is going to get the ball more than he did in Dallas? That might be impossible. T.O.'s problem wasn't that he wasn't getting looks, he wasnt catching the ball. His hands seem to be turning into stone in his old age. With new QB and future scapegoat Trent Edwards he doesn't have the most experienced QB getting him the ball. Too many chances for off the field problems to effect on the field production. I would draft someone else.


Antonio Bryant

Antonio finally had a good year with the Buccaneers after jumping from team to team over the last few seasons. Putting up 1200 yards receiving and adding 7 tds that might have been good enough to add him to your draft "wish list" this year, but you should still be wary of Antonio. He isn't exactly Mr. Consistency and could easily fall back to earth this season. Really he didnt even turn it on until late last year, so even last year he was inconsistent. Oh, and we still don't know who the QB is going to be in Tampa Bay which doesnt provide a lot of time to build chemistry with Antonio. He is like a box of chocolates - and you know what that means... he shouldn't be trusted to be on your fantasy football team.

Who is your 1st pick in '09?

Over the past few years the top pick in your Fantasy Football draft was pretty easy. Most leagues fought over the top pick so they could pick LaDanian Tomlinson who has been regarded as the top running back in the league. Since the scoring in most standard fantasy football leagues (I play on ESPN and you should too) allow the running backs the greatest opportunity to score the most points, LT was an easy number 1 pick. Having LT meant that if the rest of your draft wasn't too bad you were almost guaranteed a spot in your playoff bracket.

Things have changed since then.

LT is coming off a year where he was injured for most of the year and will be 30 when the season starts, which has typically been the age when production begins to decline for running backs. I'm not saying LT is washed up, just that he might not be the clear cut #1 he has been in the past. This year the Chargers also gave a huge contract to Darren Sproles to keep him in San Diego so this could translate into fewer carries for LT. (Which is ridiculous given that LT is more than capable of being the featured back.) If the trend continues then this opens the door for the new class of running backs in this year's draft. So who is the clear cut number one pick this year?

Adrian Peterson?

"All Day" has been regarded as the heir to LT's Automatic 1st pick Throne since he exploded during his rookie season a few years ago. He is fast, powerful, and agile - the running back trifecta. Peterson can run around defenders or run through them. He will find the end zone one way or another. The down side to AP is that he has been prone to injuries through out his career and has ol' Chester Taylor waiting behind him on the depth chart to steal those goal line carries every now and then. Touchdown vultures like Taylor don't help the value of backs like Peterson. A 16 point day (100 yards, 1 TD) is pretty good but 22 (100 yards, 2TDs) is better. Peterson didnt do his fantasy owners many favors in the playoff weeks last year by putting up a couple of single digit performances during the most important part of the fantasy season.

Michael Turner?

The "Burner" had a break out year last year in Atlanta after spending the past few seasons in San Diego as LT's back up. Apparently he was paying attention while he was on the sidelines. I didnt think much of him as a fantasy threat last year and ended up paying for it (Im taking you down this year Foster!). I guess you could say I got Burned? Ok, bad pun and you can hate it if you want. Turner proved his worth in a Falcons offense that was headed into the season with a rookie QB Matt Ryan and a wide out who most thought had breakout potential in Roddy White. This year with a more mature and comfortable Ryan under center and the addition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end the passing game should be opened up a little more for Turner to run wild again this year.

Matt Forte?

Coming off a huge senior season at Tulane (2,000 + yards and 20+ TDs) this rookie wanted to show everyone he was bringing his A game to the NFL. Forte did not disappoint Bears fans (That was Rex Grossman's job and he was not going to let some rookie take it away from him) or fantasy football owners who took a chance and drafted him. The Bears weren't exactly loaded on offense but Forte broke out anyway. Forte rushed for 1200 yards and had 8 rushing TDs and added 400 yards receving along with 4 more receiving TDs. With the Bears offense gaining Jay Cutler in the offseason and Devin Hester being more comfortable at wide out could provide Forte to pick up where he left on last year.

Drew Brees?

Who said you HAD to pick a running back? Over the past few years Drew Brees has led a Saints passing attack that has become feared by secondaries all over the league. You know he is going to throw the ball, but no one can seem to stop it. And if you want a guy that gets a lot of reps and touches why not the only guy on the field that is gauranteed to touch the ball every offensive play? Brees has a beast in Marques Colston (who was hurt for a lot of last season) out at wide out and Reggie Bush catching passes out of the backfield. Lance Moore really came on toward the end of the season and proved he can be another reliable target for Brees. Ok, sure, Drew will throw a interception from time to time (Farve did it, why can't he?) but he will throw for over 300, sometimes even over, 400 yards a game and a couple of TDs. Most standard fantasy leagues award 1 point per every 25 yards and 4 points per passing TD. I'll leave the math up to you. The Saints passing attack has never been the weak point in their passing attack (unless you remember Aaron Brooks - that guy was terrible) and Brees looks poised to have another great season.

So, who is going to be your first pick? Take a second to vote on this week's poll. May you choose wisely if you are lucky enough to grab that piece of paper from that hat with the #1 pick on it. The first pick is easy, it's the rest of your picks that you have to worry about.